Putsching Ukraine

April 30, 2022 at 2:05 am (tWP) (, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , )

As previously discussed, Ukraine greatly resembles the fascist regimes of the 1930s. Its borders and nationhood are significantly artificial, and its regime is ultra-nationalist and focused on establishing nationhood with a grievance narrative. It also relies greatly on propaganda and indoctrination to achieve political legitimacy rather than elections.

Vladimir Putin made sure to appeal to a change of leadership in Ukraine during his declaration of war speech in February: “I once again appeal to the military personnel of the armed forces of Ukraine: do not allow neo-Nazis and (Ukrainian radical nationalists) to use your children, wives and elders as human shields (…) Take power into your own hands, it will be easier for us to reach agreement”.

Therefore, Putin is effectively appealing to a coup in Kiev, in order for Ukraine to save itself. Reality is rapidly reshaping the future of Ukraine and the revolutionary regime’s intransigence is not helping the country’s future, at all.

The question now is whether such a coup can in fact take place. 

The truth is that the political and military leadership in Kiev understand the odds they face against Russia and neither Zelensky nor the nazi cliques are being evicted.

In order for a leader to be overthrown he must be unpopular and Zelensky benefits as much – if not more – from the war induced rally-to-the-flag patriotism, as Putin does. Thus no Operation Valkyrie is feasible since the political leadership is popular enough and the memory of the Maidan is still present. If Yanukovych can be chased out with 40% approval, then surely no obscure general doing the bidding of Russia could survive the atlanticist mob.

Another equally ruled out scenario is a Night of the Long Knives since that would require a parallel militarist organisation to rival that of the nazis but no such faction exists. The Maidan regime relies on liberals, oligarchs and nazis but only the nazis are disciplined and armed enough to co-opt or seize political power.

There are two segments of Ukrainian society that might have an interest in regime change. One is the Ukrainian russophone deep state that must not have appreciated seeing the young anglophone euro-fanatics coming in to replace their influence built during soviet times and using soviet methods. The other is the military, especially if complemented by disillusioned veterans arriving from the frontlines who realize the society back home is utterly indoctrinated and living some twilight zone level mass delusion of victory and heroism.

However, these two groups are not properly motivated. The Special Military Operation has been merciful to an extreme with the civilian population and the average Ukrainian is not suffering nearly as much as civilians in any other theatre of war. In addition, there is the Skorzeny contingency of seeing the NATO powers flying in their own puppet rather than waiting for Kiev to produce its own replacement, should Zelensky be removed from power.

Indeed, the main obstacle is western influence. Brussels funding and propaganda helps keep both the Ukrainian population on a path to destruction as well as preempt any unilateral moves by west-ukrainians to replace the current regime. Any new regime would find itself completely isolated in communications, military aid, finances and diplomacy. Moscow might help but even that would constitute a poisoned chalice.
As observed in Turkey, Portugal and other cases, a coup or revolution does not usually work at the first attempt and there have been no movements in Ukraine to even seek that political solution.

Simply put, both the people and the foreign partners of Ukraine are united in demanding a military solution for the conflict, however impossible a victory may be. Without dismantling the totalitarian apparatus guarded by the banderites, no military moves will even be attempted as most institutions in Ukraine have been lustrated for the past 8 years.

Whereas the Russian operation is going well militarily, one wonders how denazification is possible without entering Kiev and Lviv, and tearing down the Bandera monuments as well as kicking out the Banderites

It would appear that Moscow expected its initial shock and awe to scare the regime into exile across the border with Poland. Yet, the Ukrainian army chose to fight on and the leadership received ample funding and political capital from the west, too. Now that they are entrenched in Kiev and Lviv, how can denazification take effect?

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