New Europe’s Own Cuba
Russia’s assault on Ukraine was planned so as to drive Kiev to sue for peace and relinquish its claims to Crimea and the Donbass but the universalist West’s decision to weaponise Ukraine into an anti-russian proxy crusade, ruined the plan.
Moscow has, now for months, opted instead for an attrition model aimed at avoiding russian casualties and material destruction. However, as the Kremlin builds up its forces in Kherson, in preparation for an offensive, the endgame grows nearer.
The seats of globalist revolution in Washington and Brussels having decided to take charge of revolutionary Ukraine more directly, may soon find themselves with a politically defeated country along with a financially and militarily collapsed one. In this case, NATO may decide to salvage the reputation of the regime it has glorified by imposing a partition which would see Galicia detached from the rest of the former SSR, as a salvaged and ‘free’ West Ukraine.
This territory would likely serve as a showcase of the advantages of the atlanticist model of ‘sexual tolerance’, ‘shared sovereignty’, ‘multi-cultural society’ and ‘smart power’ diplomacy focusing on ‘moral interests’. This would entail joining the EU and NATO formally as a path for military reform and development funding. As Europe’s local ‘lighthouse of liberty’ (à la Israel and Taiwan), the purpose of Lviv would be to serve as a military platform for intelligence gathering in eastern Europe and ideologically appeal to the oppressed masses of the tyrannical russophile regimes in Belarus and Ukraine proper.
At this point, the similarities with the III Reich mount as well: a recently established state attempting a top down artificial ethnic homogenisation, led by an artist politician, supported by most of continental Europe, obsessed with wunderwaffen as a means to win a war against an older larger conservative empire, mildly enamored with a vaguely defined pagan origin, sexualising its population under the guise of a modernist ‘new man’ ideology, forced to retreat to a catholic mountainous bastion and relying on complicit foreign powers for the escape of much of its morally tainted and illegally enriched leadership.
Nevertheless, this atlanticist Cuba would be a source of potentially severe dysfunction: polish troops would most certainly dominate the allied contingent mobilised to West Ukraine and the regime’s political debt to Warsaw would clash with the heretofore project of ethnic exclusivity for Ukrainians, orthodox refugees would meet similar intolerance from the catholic and protestant minorities of the west, the G7’s financial resources would be scarce in a post-war world mired in economic depression, the progressive ethos would do little to seduce the traditionalist eastern populations and would find it much harder to ingratiate itself to the more intolerant and rural denizens of West Ukraine than it did those of the greater Kiev.
New Europe’s Cuba might turn instead into a segregated Northern Ireland living in civil strife, under constant martial law and undergoing draconian economic austerity. Conversely, Russia will have just reacquired the most industrialised littoral half of Ukraine, already prepared for infrastructural interdependence with Mother Russia.
Winter is coming for New Europe but in the East, there is a Russian Spring on the horizon.
The only other possible example of a ruinous proxy war where the patrons of the war effort end up worse than their intended target is perhaps the USSR’s and Cuba’s participation in the Angolan Bush War. South Africa did suffer regime change but it was brought about more through Western sanctions and moral pressure than by socialist military harassment and ideological condemnation. Namibia remained within Pretoria’s sphere of influence and while the MPLA would eventually win the Angolan Civil War, it would do so without Moscow’s help. Indeed, the USSR spent money it could ill afford to waste and would eventually undergo regime change due to economic crisis. The fall of the USSR hurt Cuba politically and financially with Havana going on to see much of its population starve and go into exile. The Castros would not only waste funds but would also leave the conflict militarily defeated by the smaller more nimble apartheid military prowess.
The atlanticists seem bent on following the cuban precedent.
The Westphalian Post 